Dave, this is a great question.

I think that weather conditions that are stable and provide gentle assisting winds (i.e. from the south) are generally favorable to migrants.  And if food is available at each stopover, the warm weather tells these individuals that conditions are favorable to "keep going".  The warm weather has provided ample early insect hatchings, so food is not a question.

The number of early migrants is still small, however, when compared to the main wave for most species.  That's because celestial and solar cues are probably still very powerful for many species and individuals.

A very quick opinion, but I'm short on time.

Ross


________________________________
 From: David Mozurkewich <>
To:  
Sent: Friday, March 23, 2012 11:25 AM
Subject: [MDOSPREY] Early arrivals
 
Can anyone help me understand why there are so many early arrivals?

Yes, this is a weird year.  It's been a crazy-warm winter and so far an
even crazier spring.  I understand that birds seeing this warm weather
may be tempted to move north, start singing, nesting, etc.  So far so
good.

B U T

The problem I'm having is understanding the pattern of early arrivals.
Sure, species like Gnatcatcher and Louisiana Waterthrush should already
be in the southern part of the country so they know the weather is
warmer than usual and may head north faster.  But species like Wood
Thrush and Ruby-Throated Hummingbird spend the winter in the tropics.
I have not yet had the pleasure of meeting a bird that can operate a
weather radio or visit the internet.  They don't know the weather up
here is warm and they should not be arriving early due to *our* warm
weather.  Yet they're being reported.  Is there something I don't
understand?  One possibility is there is always a vanguard of early
migrants but with normal weather, they either starve or freeze before
they have a chance to be reported.  Other idea?  Data?

Dave
David Mozurkewich
Seabrook Prince George's, MD

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