I hope that I am wrong but my money says that this storm will likely be a 
bust for Maryland birders. It is not expected to reach hurricane strength in 
its travels over the next nearly 72 hours of travels towards MD. The storm 
is currently over mainland Florida, is expected to exit near Cape Canaveral 
and then run ashore south of Myrtle Beach in the afternoon on Thursday. 
It'll then travel for 24 hours over North Carolina and Virginia before 
reaching the Hagerstown area late on Saturday. This course does not present 
the best opportunities for the storm to pick-up birds along the way in the 
waters of the gulf stream to drop in Maryland. Winds are currently expected 
to drop to 35 MPH by Richmond and be under 30 by Hagerstown. This is a 
relatively small sized tropical system. I hope that I'm wrong, but I'd be 
surprised to hear that more than a couple of southern terns shows up 
anywhere along this storm's path. It never hurts to try and if anything 
changes as far as the storm's course shifting to the east or unexpected 
strengthening (which it did not do over the Florida Straits) than more 
potential may exist. For those that try, I hope that you prove me incorrect 
and do better than I expect.

Good Luck,

Ed Boyd
Westminster, MD
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Phil Davis" <>
To: <>
Sent: Tuesday, August 29, 2006 1:55 PM
Subject: [MDOSPREY] Maryland hurricane seabirds


> MD Osprey:
>
> I'm no meteorologist, but the Labor Day weekend appears to have the 
> potential to be a real boon for finding regional seabirds in the winds of 
> Hurricane Ernesto ... especially considering that the waters of the 
> Atlantic Ocean are at unseasonably high temperatures for 2,000 miles to 
> the east and it looks like east winds are going to blow strongly and for 
> quite a while.
>
> The predictions I am seeing show the hurricane become very wide and slowly 
> moving off the Atlantic coast and the Chesapeake Bay bight, stalling off 
> of Virginia Beach. If you can get out during or just after the storm, 
> (safely), get to the coast, the Chesapeake Bay (especially the lower bay), 
> and large lakes and reservoirs. Displaced seabirds tend to recover 
> quickly, so you want to get out as soon as it's safe.
>
> This week would be a good time to bone up on key field marks for similar 
> species, so that you know what to look for should you find flying seabirds 
> in your bins. Eliminating similar species is one of the key elements of 
> good documentation.
>
>
> Here are some species groupings to consider ...
>
> Legend: If any are seen, * = most likely of the group; # - somewhat 
> likely, @ - most unlikely
>
>
> Black-capped (*), Fea's (@), and Herald Petrel (#)  [hypothetically add 
> Zino's (@@@@) and Bermuda Petrel (@@) to that mix, too]
>
> Cory's (*) and Greater Shearwater (*)
>
> Sooty (*) and Short-tailed Shearwater (@@)  [good luck with that one - one 
> east coast record of the later, I think !!!]
>
> Manx (@) and Audubon's Shearwater (*)  [Little Shearwater is hypothetical 
> only]
>
> Wilson's (*), Leach's (#), Band-rumped (#), and White-faced (@) 
> Storm-Petrel [OK, add European S-P (@@), too)
>
> White (*) and Red-billed Tropicbird (@) (adult and immature)  [need to 
> separate from Royal Tern]
>
> Northern Gannet (*) and Brown Booby (@) [and juvies - need to eliminate 
> Masked and even Red-footed Booby]
>
> Pomarine (#), Parasitic (*), and Long-tailed Jaeger (@)  [adult and 
> immature]
>
> Great (@@) and South Polar Skua (*)  [OK, and Brown Skua (@@@@), too]
>
> Sabine's Gull
>
> Black (*) and White-winged Black Tern (#)
>
> Elegant (@@) and Royal Tern (*)
>
> Roseate (#), Common (*), and Arctic Tern (#)
>
> Sooty (*) and Bridled Tern (#)  [both adults and juveniles]
>
>
> Documentation is important; besides written reports, cameras, and 
> especially video camcorders, are great for this!
>
> The MD/DCRC Review List and guidelines and templates for documentation can 
> be found on our web pages at the URL in my signature block.
>
> If anyone wants to comment on my assessments (i.e., guesses) or has other 
> suggestions to add, please jump in!!!
>
> Find those birds ... but stay safe!
>
> Phil
>
>
> ===================================================
> Phil Davis, Secretary
> MD/DC Records Committee
> 2549 Vale Court
> Davidsonville, Maryland  21035     USA
> 301-261-0184
> mailto:[log in to unmask]
>
> MD/DCRC Web site:  http://www.MDBirds.org/mddcrc/rcindex.html
> ===================================================